Half of the UK population may have already been infected by the rapidly spreading coronavirus, according to a study by researchers at the University of Oxford. The team, from Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease (EEID) group, focused on the contagion that occurred before the first case was reported in late February. They modeled the introduction of the virus into the UK – which was by mid-January at the latest – and its subsequent undetected spreading for over a month.
Although the researchers’ modeling suggests the spread is much greater than currently estimated, the finding is a good thing. It implies that only one in a thousand people in the nation infected with COVID-19 requires hospitalization. Meaning that if their model proves accurate through further research, the concept of herd immunity can help fight the highly-contagious disease. Herd immunity is the idea that the virus will eventually stop spreading when enough of the population builds up resistance by becoming infected.
However, Imperial College London’s model being used by the UK government to develop policies to end the crisis (such as social distancing) doesn’t lead to the same findings. It contrasts the Oxford model completely.
Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the Oxford study, said:
I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model.
Professor Gupta believes that if further testing confirms the Oxford model, then the current restrictions could be removed much sooner than indicated by the government. This doesn’t mean everyone can forget all the limits in place now to keep people safe. The virus is still dangerous, and 460 people (and counting) have died already in the UK as of March 25th. Also, as of that date, 90,436 patients have been tested for the virus, but only 8,077 testing positive.
The EEID group is currently collaborating with colleagues at the University of Kent and the University of Cambridge to begin antibody testing. The test results will help them figure out what stage the epidemic is in and to know how many citizens have already been infected.
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